Why are we behind the curve on Afghanistan?

Earlier this week our ambassador to Afghanistan, Sir Sherard Cowper- Coles said that our mission to Afghanistan was doomed and the best thing was to install a dictator, then this morning, I wake up to the news that Brigadier Mark Carelton-Smith, our most senior military commander in Afghanistan, declares the war against the Taliban cannot be won. “We want to change the nature of the debate from one where disputes are settled through the barrel of the gun to one where it is done through negotiations,” he told the Sunday Times. This lead to an interesting debate on the Sunday programme this morning as to the morality of staying there at all (an edition which also includes an interview with our own Fiyaz Mughal).

At conference I had the massed SAS of the Lib Dems, namely Ed Davey, William Wallace and Bob Russell, arguing against my call to drop the lines in the Security motion referring to Afghanistan. As when I called for troops out of Iraq a couple of years ago, I attracted the support of about 6 members and a dog! As I reminded conference, it wasn't that long before party policy changed on the issue, so on this issue too, I am disappointed that we are not ahead of the curve. We are not only out of step with public opinion, we are out of step with expert, particularly military expert, opinion.

As pointed out on Sunday this morning, expecting a war on a nation (or two as it looks likely to become) to resolve a global terrorism problem is utter nonsense.In Afghanistan we are clearly part of the problem, not the solution.

Whilst as a party we may have supported the original action, as I pointed out at conference, we did not write a blank check, or endorse the mass killing of civilians, or approve attacks on Pakistani soil. We didn't support more than half Afghan GDP being in the opium business, flooding the UK with cheap heroin.

When Parliament debated the Helmand UK troop deployment our Minister of Defence uttered the famous phrase ‘without a shot being fired’. Seven years on, not only are we a long, long way from achieving the original reasons for the invasion, we are getting further away from it. Insurgents and militias now control a majority of territory, and key ministries are under insurgent influence. The Talebs have not been driven from power, and Afghanistan is just as a much a lawless haven for ‘terrorists’ as it was before 2001.

Other than bombing Pakistan and risking a wider war, no credible strategy has been put forward for reversing the decline.Second, and more importantly, key necessary steps towards peace are not being taken. No cross-border insurgency can be won without the border being clear and defined. For historical reasons, and for constitutional reasons in Pakistan, the Afghan-Pakistan border remains undefined. A condition of billions of dollars of support for Afghanistan and Pakistan should be the signing of a Treaty defining the border. This however is even more important than at first seems. It is a stark fact that the Pakistani Constitution does not fully extent to the border. The Tribal Areas where insurgents, we are told, have their bases, are not fully under the Pakistani Constitution – there are no Constitutional human rights, elections, courts or other symptoms of the rule of law.

Third, the policies being imposed on the Afghan government, and the modus operandi of the Coalition, are both very obviously wrong-headed. We’ve all heard about the appalling waste and inefficiency of aid monies, and the missing billions, but worse are Coalition attempts to break with Afghan traditions, and force through a heavy centralisation of power. The result is ‘honeypot corruption’ with small cliques unable to pocket the money fast enough. Provincial and District governments stand idle while central government stalls and steals, and aid money gets channelled to unaccountable non-constitutional bodies around the country, many controlled by insurgents and drug barons.

And what about the military side ? This is a terrible mess, with FOUR separate lines of command – ISAF/NATO, the US Operation Enduring Freedom, and two direct US lines of command from Washington. Many operations are undertaken via one line of command without the knowledge of the other, as British senior military officers will angrily testify to. The result is a conflicting set of strategies where even how allies and enemies are defined changes daily, depending on who you talk to. Who are we fighting? Pashtun nationalists in Pakistan & Afghanistan; drug warlords and tribes; Mosque-based militias, global political Islam after 9/11; or factions in the Pakistani army seeking (as they claim) ‘strategic depth’ to prevent Indian influence?

The situation is clearly a mess, maintained it seems to me, in order for the British and US governments in particular to attempt to save face. An attempt that is destined to fail. It is worrying that Obama is trumpeting his intention to continue this doomed operation. In the meantime civilians and our servicemen and women will continue to lose their lives. It is about time that we as a party rediscovered the nerve we displayed over Iraq and began to challenge our reasons for being there. If we won't do it, who will?

Lib Dems on tour and other stories!

I have had a hectic couple of weeks, with little time for blogging - but it's all gone quiet now so time to catch up. Before the trip to Belfast for Liberal International Congress I was invited to the British Legion Parliamentary Reception. It was over populated with Tories so it was good to see Lib Dem MPs Jeremy Browne (my hero!), Andrew George, David Heath and Don Foster there. I was amused when Jeremy introduced me to someone as a "top Lib Dem Blogger with a blog full of lively opinions, frequently expressed!" (now you know why he is top of my heroes list!) Andrew George commented that either I was stalking him or vice versa as I had bumped into him the day before when attending the launch of a Rainer report on young people and debt (a very important report which I will return to).

Later that afternoon I attended the launch of the Lib Dem friends of Sri Lanka, hosted by Lord Dholakia and addressed by Ed Davey, Andrew George (!), Tom Brake, Don Foster and Simon Hughes. My children (who are half Sri Lankan) also came which I am proud to say resulted in Lara (far right in the pic) joining the committee.

And then off to Belfast for Liberal International Congress. As I have already posted the highlight had to be hearing Morgan Tvsangarai, but I was also very moved by Maung Maung, General Secretary of the Federation of Trade Unions in Burma. A summary of his speech is here. What moved me most was when he was asked if he still lived in Burma. No, he had to flee in 1988 and he hadn't seen his wife or son since. He said it so matteroffactly, someone else who challenged me about how much I would be prepared to sacrifice in the fight for freedom.

There is a full report of the Congress here. And eventually I will get round to putting up all (well nearly all!) the pix here.

The Lib Dem contingency consisted of Jo Hayes, Julie Smith, Robert Woodthorpe-Browne, Phil Bennion, Chris le Breton, Jonathan Fryer and Simon Hughes. We were also joined by Ed Davey for a reception at Stormount on Friday evening, followed by a team Lib Dem meal and enjoying the delights of Fibber Magees live traditional music (even if it was so crowded it felt like being on the Northern Line!).

Another highlight for me was meeting Rosie Odinga, daughter of Raila Odinga, Prime Minister of Kenya - who described her relationship to her father as a "biological technicality"! Rosie is not only an incredibly inspirational woman, she is also a lot of fun and we had a great evening dancing in Morrison's in Belfast Saturday night.

Having a meeting in Belfast on Monday I took the bus down to Newcastle and went walking in the beautiful Mourne mountains on Sunday. The weather was glorious and the walk up Slieve Donnard spectacular..........tho seeing all the people in their proper walking boots with sticks, made me feel rather daft in my Dune pumps - carrying a handbag! Having dropped and broken my son's camera the night before I took some lovely pix on my phone, tho all to no avail since I then went and lost it :-(

On Tuesday I was part of an "expert" panel speaking at a House Magazine "Westminster Briefing" event. I had received a flyer to this event looking at financial inclusion some time ago, reading down the list of prestigious speakers - James Plaskitt MP, Brian Pomeroy (Financial Inclusion Taskforce), Angela Knight (BBA), thinking "hmmm this looks interesting" I was shocked to see Linda Jack with "invited" in brackets after my name! So, it was a great honour to be regarded as an expert and a great opportunity to bang the drum about an issue about which I feel passionately.

The rest of the week it has to be said, in contrast, has been rather like an episode of Eastenders..........but of course, on that, my lips have to be sealed!!!