Melanie Phillips and why the Tories don't cut the mustard

While I have been away Melanie Phillips, a woman more likely to make me grimace than sit up and listen, has metaphorically thrown down a gauntlet for the Tories - "We want a new start, proper leadership, a fresh vision. We are unlikely to get these from yet another Labour leader. The big question, however, is: who will deliver them? " - but a gauntlet that could just as well have been thrown our way.

Now, the problem she has identified is that the Tories are not picking up what she sees as the key issues -

"What are the Tories saying, for example, about the fundamental onslaught upon the integrity and identity of the United Kingdom posed by both devolution and our membership of the EU, which aims to reduce nations to regions controlled from the centre by the super-state of Euroland? They are silent.

What are they saying about Labour's ruinous levels of public spending? Pledging to match them.

What are they saying about the obsession with global warming which has produced ruinous policies on land use which have pushed up the cost of food? They share it.

Far from providing a clear and principled alternative, the new model Tories still defer too much to fashionable opinion; are still terrified of offending that opinion - particularly in the BBC; and are still following rather than leading.

The problem is that, while people know what has fallen, they are not sure what if anything has risen in its place. It is a vacuum which spells danger, not just for the beleaguered Mr Brown but for us all."

Of course, I agree about the vacuum, I agree that the Tories are far from well placed to fill it, but for quite different reasons.

For an intelligent woman her tabloid shallow analysis of our role in Europe is not only pitiful it is wrong. Her concerns about public spending are not accompanied by any intelligent arguments about what she would cut and why. Her view on global warming is plain ostrich like and her ridiculous over inflation of the power of the BBC, a shrinking fish in the global media pool, is laughable.

But the valid point she makes is about the vacuum and the fact that the Tories are ill placed to fill it. That leaves...........us. If the SNP can do it, so can we.

How long til the Cameron bubble bursts?.............

.......17 days?

The world is an unpredictable place. We are fortunate to live in a part of the globe where there is more stability than in most countries. But, in relative terms, we are being shaken. The "credit crunch", falling house prices, rising oil, fuel and food prices - all are contributing to a feeling of insecurity. And then there is the terrorist threat.....hmmm that hot potato, 42 days, ID cards, islamaphobia. Add to the mix a smidgen of xenophobia, demonising of young people, fear of crime, dirty hospitals, failing schools, oh.....and don't forget that great demon Europe.

At the heart of all our relative insecurity is a deep cynicism about politics and politicians. No one, from any party, can surely deny that this has got worse. That cynicism was aptly displayed in Crewe and Nantwich. How will it be displayed in leafy Henley?

The smart money may be on a Tory victory, after all, there is no doubt the Tories are resurgent. In Crewe and Nantwich it was clear they were a shoo in. But in Crewe and Nantwich it was a Labour seat. We were third. In Henley the landscape is very different. Of course, the Tories may well consolidate and increase their share of the vote, but let's not forget, the cynicism isn't only about Labour and Gordon Brown, it is also about politics in general. The local elections and recent by elections have demonstrated that. As Lib Dems we have made some brilliant gains from the Tories. This for me makes me believe we could do really well in Henley. The Henley electorate can't send much of a signal to a Labour government by voting Tory.........but they can send a message to the political establishment by voting Lib Dem!

I am a great fan of chaos theory....you know, the butterfly flapping its wing in Brazil ultimately influencing the course of a tornado. We live in "interesting times". As a party that has at its heart the belief that no one should be enslaved by poverty, ignorance or conformity..........all too often we rely on that very conformity!!!! Ds and Ps, yes?!

So, back to Henley. As I said yesterday, we have the kind of candidate in Stephen Kearney who can throw the rule book up in the air. I confess, I didn't have that sense of optimism in Crewe and Nantwich. I am frustrated that we pretended it was winnable and now have the problem of a "cry wolf" backlash. However, to those of you who may be feeling downhearted, worry not! We are serious contenders in Henley, it is worth every second, minute, hour you can put into this. Every little will help.......who knows if it is your straw that will break the Tory camel's back, your "grain of sand" that will tip the balance?

Dear oh dear, I sound very melodramatic about this, but regular readers will know, I am not a great fan of spin. I was quite prepared to air my concerns about Crewe and Nantwich, if I thought we were banging a hollow drum in Henley, I would be the first to say so.

So, back to Mr C. Don't forget this time last year. He was unpopular with his grass roots (may still be so from my intelligence). He was struggling to find a foothold with Brown (who started well remember?), it is the incompetence of Brown that has puffed up Cameron. Where is the substance in Cameron? Where does Cameron stop being Blairlite? Our challenge is to highlight the clear fault line between Cameron and his party, "Liberal" Dave has a party that is still, conservative, rightwing, to its core!

A huge bubble has developed around DC. But, like a bubble, it may be big, but it is fragile, it could burst at any moment. My hunch is, this could be on 26th June..............

If Cameron is the answer, what was the question?

David Cameron was interviewed by Andrew Marr this morning, demonstrating, if demonstration was necessary, why there are so many soft Tories. I confess to being surprised, if you looked at the polls you would expect to be encountering hard Tories at every other door. The opposite is the case, in fact I have spoken to many who are saying - well, I normally vote Tory, but I'm not so sure this time. Cameron, despite the polls, is certainly not setting middle Britain alight. His crocodile tears for the poor are not sending those on poverty pay rushing into his arms. This morning he again demonstrated why. No policies (except it seems tax cuts for the rich) - the only definite policy position he articulated was sorting out MP's allowances. All smoke, mirrors, motherhood and apple pie. On Grangemouth "We would be saying to management and union you need to sit down and talk together" - great idea Dave, how come no one else thought of that!

The King's New Clothes analogy is perhaps over used, but in this case it is perfect. Davey brought out that old chestnut "waste" cutting that would save the money for an ultimate cut in borrowing and taxes. Could he identify even one area where savings could be made? No, he is setting up a commission or some such animal to look into it. No mention of ID cards, quangos, paperwork, management consultants, pulling out of Iraq and Afghanistan, Trident?

I used to think Blair's great gift was packaging - shiny bright eye catching - conning you into thinking there was actually anything of worth in the package, but Cameron is surpassing even him. At least in the early days New Labour were driven by some sort of ideology and set of "new" values. Regardless of my disdain for Blair, and disagreement with much of that ideology and value base, you could see where he was going. You could understand a little of what drove him, even if you didn't agree with it. But Cameron, what are his values? You used to know where you stood with the Tories, but now, what do they believe? What political values do they espouse? What is the ideology driving their alleged policy development? They now seem to be trying to wrap themselves in the sheep's clothing of being progressive..........really?!

So, despite probing by Andrew Marr, I am still none the wiser as to what a Tory government would look like, how it would make its sums add up and I am frankly sick to death of the feeble excuse that they can't tell us yet. Up and down the country, opposition groups on local councils manage to come up with alternative budgets at budget time. I fail to understand how the Tories will ever come up with any concrete policies if they are unable to cost them. As Andrew Marr pointed out this morning, they are talking about spending commitments (more prisons etc) but still cannot say where the money would come from. As someone who has sat on FPC for the past couple of years I am only too acutely aware of the power of our treasury team when it comes to costing our policies!

So, the people of this country are in a catch 22 situation. Fed up with Labour, no real confidence in the Tories and with a voting system that means even if they do like our policies they are often more concerned about stopping someone else, or regard a vote for us as wasted. Little choice and virtually no power......and politicians wonder why there is so much disaffection amongst the electorate?