Sunday, December 02, 2007

Clegg near certainty

Good heavens - only 12% in the lead, why wouldn't the Clegg camp be all of a panic!

Come off it Jo - I would have hoped you would have noticed that I for one have toned down my criticism of Chris and even my biggin' up of Nick. There are still a lot to make up their minds, of course, but I would say it looks pretty clear that Nick will maintain and even increase his lead, if I was a betting girl, which I'm not, I may be taking Mike Smithson's advice at the moment...........seeing Clegg as a "near certainty".

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

You Gov did two polls last time and they were both way out - what makes you think this one is any more accurate?

Anonymous said...

She thinks its more accurate because it supports her precious 'tory boy' Nick Clegg!

Andy Mayer said...

From last time there's good reason to believe that YouGov over-estimates the activist vote and understates the armchair vote. Last time that meant some ramping of the Huhne vote.

What we don't know this time is whether or not Clegg or Huhne has the greater media presence going into the race (whereas it was obvious with Huhne and Campbell last time), so hard to say whether or not Huhne's vote is overstated again. But that would be my posiiton. If I had to call it at this stage I'd say 60/40 within a 5% range

Anonymous said...

Given that YouGov seems to back up what both camps have intimated that their private polling shows, I think we can safely say that Clegg has a substantial lead.

One key thing - don't be too hamstrung by the undecided stat. 30% of members will not be voting, so many undecideds will join that not-so-merry band.

Alix said...

[releases flock of fluffy bunnies over thread. Second anonymous poster is overcome with repentance at nasty comment and weeps, promises to be a good person]

Left Lib said...

The YouGov poll may well be right, but when it comes to deciding how to vote, it is irrelevant. There is no tactical voting needed, just vote for the person you thnk is best.
I do not see the point in knowing in advance what we will find out for sure in a couple of weeks time.

Linda Jack said...

Anonymous dearest, I really don't mind you leaving catty comments, what I object to is that you don't have the guts to identify yourself. People may love or hate what I say (and if they were luke warm what would be the point of saying it anyway?!)but at least I am prepared to say it in my own name.

Jo A said...

Just saying people always love the underdog - thinking of David Cameron here who was never expected to win...

Last time Chris Huhne put up a cracking good fight and even beat Hughes - darling of the activists...